The AI money loop: 427 deals, $5T, who pays whom
Who pays whom in artificial intelligence: 427 deals worth $1 billion or more since November 2024 — investments, chip purchases, cloud contracts and debt — between 198 companies in 25 countries. Circles are sized by each month's market value; arrows go from payer to receiver.
What are circular AI deals?
Circular AI deals are agreements in which money between AI companies travels in a loop. A chipmaker such as Nvidia invests in an AI lab such as OpenAI; the lab signs multi-year contracts to rent cloud capacity from Oracle, Microsoft or CoreWeave; and those providers spend the money on the same chipmaker's GPUs. Each step is reported as investment, revenue or backlog, so the same dollars can inflate several companies' numbers at once. Analysts at the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF have flagged this vendor-financing pattern as a risk if AI demand slows. This map shows every deal of $1 billion or more since November 2024, with sources, so you can follow the money yourself.
Latest deals
- Nov 5, 2026 Microsoft does not double Nscale Texas contract n/a
- Nov 3, 2026 Meta places $15 billion of bonds $15B
- Nov 3, 2026 Qatar and Brookfield fund Drax data centre $3.4B
- Nov 2, 2026 Oracle seeks another $20 billion $10B
- Nov 1, 2026 Aramco buys 49% of HUMAIN $2.6B
- Oct 29, 2026 Microsoft returns to the market: $25 billion $25B
- Oct 29, 2026 Nvidia guarantees Nscale's debt n/a
- Oct 28, 2026 OpenAI wants to buy Google TPUs n/a
- Oct 28, 2026 $5 billion federal loan to Constellation $5B
- Oct 27, 2026 Nvidia invests $3 billion in Meta $3B
- Oct 27, 2026 Physical Intelligence heads toward $20 billion $1B
- Oct 26, 2026 SpaceX: $40 billion of Nvidia chips on debt $40B
Biggest deals
- Sep 10, 2025 OpenAI-Oracle: $300 billion cloud deal $300B
- Oct 28, 2025 OpenAI commits to buy $250 billion of Azure $250B
- Feb 2, 2026 SpaceX absorbs xAI: combined value $1.25 trillion $250B
- Nov 14, 2025 Korea commits $200bn cash to US strategic sectors $200B
- May 5, 2026 Anthropic: $200 billion on Google Cloud $200B
- Jul 25, 2026 Broadcom-Samsung: $200 billion agreement $200B
- Dec 11, 2025 Korea launches ₩150tn National Growth Fund $102B
- Feb 17, 2026 Adani's $100B AI data centre plan $100B
- Feb 27, 2026 OpenAI expands AWS by $100 billion (2 GW Trainium) $100B
- Apr 20, 2026 Anthropic to spend over $100 billion on AWS $100B
Most connected companies
Nvidia
OpenAI
Google
Anthropic
Meta
Amazon
Microsoft
xAI
CoreWeave
Nscale
AMD
HUMAIN
Oracle
SoftBank
US Government
Samsung
Nebius
SpaceX
Broadcom
Fluidstack
SK Hynix
Brookfield
Cerebras
IntelQuestions and answers
What is circular financing in AI?
Circular financing is when AI companies fund each other in a loop: a chipmaker invests in an AI lab, the lab commits to buy cloud capacity, and the cloud provider spends that money on the chipmaker's chips. The same dollars are counted as investment, revenue and backlog several times. As of Nov 9, 2026 AI Fund Flows tracks 427 deals of $1B+ and 13 closed loops.
Is the Nvidia–OpenAI deal circular?
Yes, it closes a loop: Nvidia → OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia, where $30B can go all the way round. Nvidia's money reaches OpenAI in 2 deals in this database; the September 2025 letter of intent for up to $100 billion was later replaced by a smaller direct investment.
How much has OpenAI committed to compute?
$725B in cloud, chip and compute contracts counted here (multi-year commitments at headline value).
Who has invested the most in OpenAI?
SoftBank ($60B), Amazon ($50B), Nvidia ($30B), Thrive Capital ($13.2B).
Is AI a bubble?
The data cannot answer that, but it shows the risk: $5T of announced deals, many of them multi-year or "up to" commitments, with the same companies on both sides. OpenAI pays the most ($754.1B), xAI receives the most ($412.3B).
What is the difference between an investment, a compute contract and vendor financing?
An investment buys a stake; a compute or cloud contract buys capacity over several years; vendor financing is when a supplier funds its own customer (directly, through a stake, or by guaranteeing its debt) so the customer can keep buying from it.
What is the biggest AI deal?
OpenAI-Oracle: $300 billion cloud deal ($300B, Sep 10, 2025).
Where does the data come from and how often is it updated?
From company releases, SEC filings and major outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, FT, WSJ, The Information). Every deal links to its sources. Last update: Nov 9, 2026.